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Author Topic: One Belt One Road  (Read 36205 times)
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The One Belt One Road Initiative is one of the hottest topics in China today.

Many Think Tank organizations presented their points of view. Some of these views are very forward thinking.

We shall post some of these views including our own.  We did a seminar try run on June 13, 2017 and got valuable feedback.

Two files are included here:

1. One Belt One Road Introduction
2. OROB3.PDF which is the presentation

Official Website:
https://eng.yidaiyilu.gov.cn/index.htm

« Last Edit: 2017-09-23, 11:51:43 by ltseung888 »
   
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First Slide and the notes/comments.

一帶一路和必賺行業的免費講座,是與各階層分享。内容可隋意使用和改進,不需為智識版權担心。

請參與網上討論。

Many of the concepts raised are controversial. This is deliberate to stimulate innovation and creativity. What can be done better than the present? The controversial thoughts include: Super Democracy, Super Silicon Valley Mentality, Mutual Credits, Ignore Market Forces in Forex Trading, to become rich and remaining rich by helping others rich, having 2 camps competing to get Developing Nations rich…
   

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Everyman decries immorality
Thankyou for allowing dialogue on your bench Lawrence, it encourages and leads to peace.

One Belt One Road is something Everyman can support, with mutual respect.


---------------------------
Everyman Standing Order 01: In the Face of Tyranny; Everybody Stands, Nobody Runs.
Everyman Standing Order 02: Everyman is Responsible for Energy and Security.
Everyman Standing Order 03: Everyman knows Timing is Critical in any Movement.
   
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Second Slide and Notes/Comments

前言

一帶一路(OBOR)是一個雙贏的策略。

資金(金錢)不是一個稀有資源,因為它可以被印刷出來。
    只要收受人接受和重視。
    只要它能購買商品和服務。
    它更可以用作結算和儲備貨幣。

一個國家的匯率可以通過自己的外匯交易所控制 。
    中國不需要使用其外匯儲備來保衛匯率。
    人民幣可以緩慢升值, 変相成為結算和儲備貨幣。

政府可為支持一個行業而印鈔, 這行業就可変成必勝(必賺)的行業。

China is adding a non-transparent, anti-periodic element into the fixing of RMB exchange rate. It effectively allows China to specify the rate at its discretion.
China is the biggest trading partner with many Nations. These Nations accept RMB as the trading currency. China also has currency swap agreements with these Nations. The exchange rate is pre-agreed.  USD is not needed in such transactions...

Will RMB become one of the default Settlement and Reserve Currencies in the future?
« Last Edit: 2017-06-14, 02:01:22 by ltseung888 »
   
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Third Slide and Notes/Comments

一帶一路

參與國家出於自願:
    中國不會干涉其他國家的內政。
    一帶一路是替中國和各國獲取經濟增長和声譽的引擎。

當一個國家想要富有和持續富有,最好的策略是幫助其他國家變得富有。

基礎設施項目是長期的,可能不會產生利潤(或投資回報):
     政府參與至關重要、
     可把項目分成長期和短期、
     或非盈利和盈利。

鼓勵全球各國參與。

Not every project will succeed. But keep promoting the success stories. Discuss the failures and treat them as learning experiences.

One Belt One Road Infrastructures are the Engines of economic growth for many Nations. These Engines will pull many out of poverty...
   
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Fourth Slide and Notes/Comments

OBOR背後的原因

國家外交的新模式--- 雙贏。

當中國成為世界第一的經濟體系時,它會改寫全球化。
         中國生產能力已過剩:
         中國已完成主要基建項目,
             已有醫院、電力、水務、住房、互聯網、農場、工廠等。
        在中國境內多建公路或高速鐵路意義不大。
        若削減基建, 會令職位流失和GDP放緩。

最好的方法是:使用中國的額外產能來惠及其他國家。

Historically, when Nations got richer and stronger, they went on the path of expanding their empires – conquering and enslaving other Nations. Nuclear Wars mean the end of civilization. A new way must be found.

The new way is to get rich and remain rich, help others to become rich...
   
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Fifth Slide and Notes/Comments

資本(貨幣)來自哪裡?

貨幣可以無中玍有, 被印刷出來。

國家要全民富有、必須增加其貨幣供應。
國際社會作為一個全球性實體、也必須增加貨幣供應、使人類富裕。
    美國印制貨幣, 其實使其銀行或富人更富有。

中國為了支持一帶一路, 增加貨幣供應 、為世界創造更多有意義的經濟活動。               
     中國企業會接受人民幣, 在他國進行基建 。
     外國公司會做同樣的事嗎 ?

This is the most important concept. It is the War Weapon against Capitalism. Previously, a rich Nation claimed that a poorer Nation should create conditions to attract capital. He who has the gold rules. Now, he who has the technology rules.

Money can be printed. Knowledge and technology can be learned.

Modern Wealth is the quality and quantity of Meaningful Economic Activities.

When I was young, I was told to get rich, I should go into one of the money making professions - doctor, lawyer or accountant. When I grew up, I found that the ones who made most money were the successful entrepreneurs. Bill Gates, Steve Jobs were the heroes.

Now, I do not need to worry about money. I realized that money can be printed. Those who can turn the printed money into Meaningful Economic Activities to benefit the masses are the new heroes. These new heroes are not a few names. They are a Group who work hard towards a common goal. They each contribute the best part of themselves. A bridge is not built by one engineer. The problems are not solved by one engineer. The high speed train improvements are from thousands...

Similarly, the economic problems will be solved via the efforts of many.  Germany, Japan showed that they could become prosperous after the heavy devastation after the Second World War. Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Korea showed that they could learn the technology, manufacture and export. China showed getting rich was not a dream. It just needed the right policy (State Capitalism) and stability to complete the many Five Year Plans.

The Meaningful Economic Activities are constantly being revised. The latest is - build the Infrastructures in other Nations to achieve win-win.
« Last Edit: 2017-06-14, 09:51:37 by ltseung888 »
   
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China showed getting rich was not a dream. It just needed the right policy (State Capitalism) and stability to complete the many Five Year Plans.

The Five Year Plans are turning into the many Infrastructure Projects associated with the One Belt One Road. The Five Year Plans are not just within China...

Clean energy is an example - Solar, Wind, Hydroelectric, Tidal and now Combustible Ice... China is going Nuclear against the trend in the West. Despite its dangers, Nuclear Power Stations are much cleaner than Coal. Better technology will make Nuclear Power Stations safer. Stability (longer than the typical Five Year Plans or Western Election period) is needed to complete such Nuclear Power Stations.

« Last Edit: 2017-06-14, 18:28:35 by ltseung888 »
   
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Sixth Slide and Notes/Comments

必赢(必賺)業務

當政府授予A公司建設道路時,A公司將收到金錢(假設A公司可以做這項工程 )。
     A公司會変成必賺。

A公司给工人的餐飲業務予B公司,後者也會必賺。

政府基本上承擔所有的風險:
     洪水,地震,恐怖襲擊等。

政府可以通過印制金錢來維持有意義的經濟活動。I

In State Capitalism, much of the risk is taken by Governments. For example, in building a road in a Developing Nation, the Construction Company does not need to worry about not getting paid. The workers do not worry about not having food or health care. The Construction Company gets paid even if the project got cancelled because of political reasons.

One Taiwan Businessman commented: "The Mainland Chinese Companies have a much easier time than us. They are led by State Enterprises that built Roads, Power Stations, Dams, Internet etc. They have Governments negotiating on their behalf."

Some people did not like the term sure-win. They said that even if there were a 0.1% chance of failure, the project would not be regarded as sure-win. We accept such criticism. In my understanding of the Economic World, a success rate of over 99% will be regarded as sure-win. When the results are confirmed (such as a road, a bridge, a power station is completed), I would regard it as sure-win.

Some people still think that the Three Gorges Dam project is a failure or a potential failure. What do you think?
« Last Edit: 2017-06-15, 00:28:39 by ltseung888 »
   
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Seventh Slide and Notes/Comments

介紹一些新概念

我們的世界正在快速變化。

需要掌握許多新概念。

以下新概念可能看起來是混亂的:
         但是,如果你知道如何玩圍棋GO(AlphaGO擊敗人腦 )
         每個概念都佔有一個策略位置。
         每個概念需要仔細消化。
         他們互相支持。

不要擔心,如果你無法在這個研討會上掌握它們。
        (它们会慢慢溶入。)
        一些概念在這個研討會上,可能甚至不被討論...

Keep the handout and review the concepts from time to time.

Rules made by man can always be changed by man. Many of these rules are biased towards the rule makers...
   
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Eighth Slide and Notes/Comments

新概念: 超民主

愚蠢的民主是:
         一人一票。
        選舉一些不合格的人作為代表。
        許多代表破壞良好的政策,只是為了獲得知名度。
        許多好的政策被推翻,只因為它們被其他人通過。

超級民主是:
        先在(結構化的)互聯網論壇中詳細討論。
        仍然可以有代表。但他們的資格,將被充分暴露在互聯網上。
        投票人仍然可以經互聯網,決定重要的政策。

Understand the pitfalls of Democracy. Do not be blinded by the Western Propaganda.
Every idea is third class. Improve it to second or first class.

Democracy has been promoted by the West as the ultimate ideal political system. The West promoted one person one vote. The representatives do not need to be qualified. The assumption is that the voters will automatically select the best candidate. Reality in Hong Kong clearly showed that the assumption was false.

Previously, without Internet, we have to get the representative sitting together to make decisions. Now Internet has overcome the limitation of number of participants, space and time. Many of the key issues can be voted by the voters themselves. (Those who cannot use Internet can be helped similar to the blind voters with special arrangements.)

The issues can first be discussed via Structured Internet Forums. The first level may be open to all. The second level may contain only the useful comments and posters may be by invitation only. The third level may be funded to form the basis of potential Government Policies. There can still be representatives. But their qualifications will be demonstrated at the second level. Important issues can still be decided by all voters via the Internet with ease...

A small place like Singapore or Hong Kong can implement such Super Democracy first...
« Last Edit: 2017-06-16, 21:48:04 by ltseung888 »
   
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Ninth Slide and Nates/Comments

新概念 :互富系統

富有的國家A與貧窮國家B有互相交換貨幣安排。

國家A給予國家B X數量的貨幣A。
國家B給予國家A 同等價值的貨幣B。

國家B使用貨幣A從國家A購買商品,服務或基礎設施。不需負債。

國家A使用貨幣B幫助國家B ,(通過特別經濟區)建設酒店,商場,旅遊景點,工廠等, 令國家 B變得富有。

假設是: 當國家 B變得富有時,資產將更有價值。

This is one of the most important Economic War Weapons. Any rich Nation can print money and pass on the knowledge and technology to get another Nation rich. Aim to achieve win-win.

Previously, the two camps competing were USA and USSR. Unfortunately, they were competing with the Cold War Mentality. The goal was to destroy the self confidence of the other camp and achieve absolute dominance. USA succeeded. But few developing Nations got rich. The aid given to African Nations has been labelled as "dead aid". It did more harm than good.

With Mutual Credits, China will use the Currency of Nation X to make Nation X rich. Many short-term, money making projects can be implemented. These include hotels, shopping malls, model farms, tourist attraction spots, factories etc. China is basically passing on its experience in building its wealth to Nation X.  Money is not a scarce resource. Knowledge and technology can be learned quickly. It is the will power and political stability that will allow Nation X to achieve its Five Year Plans. State Capitalism combines the best of State Planning and Private Entrepreneurship.

China does not mind taking over the role of printing RMB as a supplement to US dollar. The World cannot be richer if there were no increases in Currency. USA uses Banks and demands payback of principal and interests. There are many political strings attached to such loans.

China embarks on the new path - the printing of RMB plus the passing on the knowledge and technology will make Nation X rich. The printing of RMB already allows the Chinese Companies to generate more employment and increase GDP both in China and in Nation X. Even if there were political instability in Nation X and all infrastructures were destroyed, the effort is still worthwhile. There is no need to use Military Force to safeguard the overseas Chinese Interests! Imperialism is NOT necessary. There is no need to take on the role of World Policeman.  Just play the role of giving away thin air money and knowledge/technology. If properly managed, the more money and knowledge China gives away, the more China will gain...
« Last Edit: 2017-06-16, 21:46:48 by ltseung888 »
   
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Tenth Slide and Notes/Comments

新概念 :關係銷售

西方國家推廣價低者得(成本最低的生產者可得合約)的概念。

發展中的國家被迫向工人減少工資,污染環境,試圖成為最低成本的生產者。

中國擁有較大的人口,
         願意按照這一遊戲規則,
         學習和改進技術,
         成為世界工廠。

關係銷售的特点 -- 中國希望國家X變得富有:
        可用較高價錢,買其產品。
        減少自己的生產(如牛奶)和從國家X購買。

Relationship selling is like supporting the restaurant of your friend. The food may not be that good. The price may be high. You still go and give improvement suggestions. Leave a larger tip rather than asking for a discount! Help your friend to become rich!

One of seniors who heard Relationship Selling objected strongly. He said: "This is against all Economic Principles. Relationship Selling makes the manufacturers lazy. They do not need to keep improving their products."

He is right. Thus, we have other concepts such as Super Silicon Valley Mentality to overcome such drawbacks.
 
*** Edit on June 17:

Within one Nation, many things are regarded as fair or as the responsibility of a Government. For example, in Xinjiang province of China, there are many minority races. Their development and wealth lag behind the rest of the Nation. Should the Government implement special policies to let them catch up? For example:

1. Should Government help them to turn part of their land into Tourist Attraction areas?
2. Should Government build three star hotels (or above) so that the minority races are exposed to modern facilities?
3. Should such hotels be turned into the property of the minority races so that they actually own or live in such modern facilities?
4. Should Government ensure that every minority household has minimum standard of living - electricity, running water, Internet, food, warm room, education and chance to progress upwards?
5. Should Government provide special scholarships for their capable students?
6. Should Government implement special Mutual Credits so that they can partner with one or more richer and more developed cities?
7. Should Government encourage the minority entrepreneurs with interest free loans and special training?
8. Should the minority races set up Think Tanks and propose special policies and projects?
9. Should the Think Tanks focus on promoting harmony?
10. Should Relationship Selling be promoted to enable the economy of the minority races to catch up faster?
« Last Edit: 2017-06-17, 09:52:56 by ltseung888 »
   
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Eleventh Slide and Notes/Comments

新概念 :  超矽谷心態

1     一切都是三流 。我們努力使其成為二流或一流 。當我們把它傳給你時,你  應該把它當成三流 ,把它改成二流或一流 。
2     任何難題,交到我們手上,若我們沒有精神崩潰, 問題一定會被解決。
3     我們是神,我們可以改變和製定任何新的規則。
4     我們永遠不會隱藏我們的失敗經驗。他們是所有人的學習課程。
5     我們現在不知道的事,明天我們將會通過互聯網知道。

This Super Silicon Valley Mentally is totally different from the Humble Attitude preached by the traditional Chinese Philosophers. In the Modern, Competitive World, opportunity goes to the ones who are not afraid to stand up.

Think about going for a job interview. If you are not outstanding and out spoken, you do not get the job.

The One Belt One Road Initiative is the chance for China to be out spoken and be outstanding. If China focuses on the many real infrastructure projects, there is little chance of failure. These infrastructure projects can be seen and the benefits will be felt by the Citizens and tourists...
« Last Edit: 2017-06-17, 23:48:37 by ltseung888 »
   
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Twelfth Slide and Notes/Comments

新概念 :   框框外的思考

智囊團是以質量、而不是數量來衡量的。

一位頂尖的智囊,可以打敗(超越)數以百計的普通智囊 。

任何想法都是三流。 一定要把它提升到二流或一流。

世界正在快速變化:
         例如化石燃料(天然氣和石油)以往是至高無上的,各國都想擁有。
         來自美國的頁岩氣技術改變了這景像。
         來自日本和中國的可燃冰技術可能成為下一個革命。

不要輕率地駁回一個瘋狂的想法,讓它在互聯網上討論(人工智能、飛碟、 免費能源等等。)

Think about Cities with no traffic jams; tidal waves as energy sources; green houses in deserts with no pests; solar panel houses to provide cooling etc.ar

Crazy ideas are often out-of-the-box.

RMB replacing the US dollar as the World Settlement and Reserve Currency?

Providing money and knowledge to help another Nation rich?

Singapore or Hong Kong to implement Super Democracy first?

Two camps competing to get Developing Nations rich?
   
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Thirteenth Slide and Notes/Comments:

新概念 : 有系統的腦振盪

1. 介紹主題。
2. 提案者提出建議。
3. 在第一輪交換意見時,支持提案者。
4. 提案者總結。
5. 在第一輪交換意見時,所有人都考慮到建議中的缺点和陷阱。
6. 提案者總結。
7. 繼續使用互聯網論壇。

Many Companies use unstructured brainstorming and failed. In most Companies, participants will see who is the speaker or proposer. If the speaker is the Boss, he will get more support. That often defeats the purpose of brainstorming when a new approach may be needed.

Systematic Brainstorming tries to encourage and support the speaker first. Do not pour cold water before the idea is properly investigated.
   
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Fourteenth Slide and Notes/Comments

新概念 :   培植公幣投資者,掌握金融遊戲。

不僅富人可以在市埸投資。

有興趣的公眾可以使用假貨幣,在模擬財務市埸上競爭。
         選拔標準、將是以他們交易的策略,理由,
         及獲得的結果。

獲獎者將贏得真正的資金,代表公眾投資。
         如果在指定時間內成功,他們將退返資本並保有利潤。
         如果不成功,經驗會記錄在案,作為教訓個案。

讓所有人都有機會學習。掌握金融遊戲。

When a Nation gets rich, much of the wealth will be in the hands of Citizens. They will decide what to do with their money. One way is to invest (or use the money to create more money).  Unfortunately, not much formal education is devoted to this. Many citizens are like sheep to get slaughtered!

One way for the less privileged is to provide them with a ladder to climb up to the top of the wealth pyramid. Ways must be found to narrow the gap between the rich and poor to provide a more harmonious society. Even the poorest will have a minimum standard of comfortable living and the chance to move upwards...
   
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Fifteenth Slide and Notes/Comments

新概念 :   全球經濟戰

我們已經處於經濟戰爭之中,
         戰爭不是在戰場上,
         而是每天都在會議室、新聞媒體、互聯網、及金融市場上進行。

我們永遠不知道(不確定)誰是敵人,誰是朋友。

戰爭一個目的是:試圖摧毀他國對他自己制度的信心。

現在的規則是由西方制定的,有許多陷阱:
         例如最低成本的割喉戰、盲目追求投資的回報、及盲目追求民主自由等。 

蘇聯因為敗在經濟戰,而四分五裂了。

China must understand that it has found a good path that works for the present. Combine State Planning with Individual Entrepreneurship. Encourage Individuals to make money legally. Beat the Multi-Nationals with State Enterprises. (Just like the Multi-Nationals beat the dad and mum shops.)

Will China be beaten in the Global Economic War? Are its Think Tanks and Commanders up to the task? Have they got the Super Silicon Valley Mentality?
   
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Sixteenth Slide and Notes/Comments

新概念:  新的全球化

以前,全球化意味著:放棄貿易壁壘,包括財務保障。自由競爭,成本最低的生產者勝利。

資本和技術(和工作)流向最低勞動成本國家X,
         國家x接受低工資,污染和學習技術,
         國家X接受來自富國印制的貨幣。

新的全球化意味著:
         如果一個國家想要富有,持續富有,就得幫助其他國家富有。
         不干涉別國政治。尋求雙贏。

Success stories are the most convincing. China itself is a big success story. Ethiopia is becoming a success story in Africa. The South Asian Nations are recreating the Asian Miracle again. (Will they be wiped out again by the Hedge Funds or Crocodiles?)
China should tell the story of how it lost one trillion USD reserve in 18 months via trading on the Forex Exchanges of other Nations. Do not hide failures. Let them be lessons to all.

   
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Seventeenth Slide and Notes/Comments

新概念:   兩個陣營的競爭

一個陣營可以是美國等、另一個陣營可以是俄羅斯+中國等,
         競爭的目標是幫助發展中的國家富有。

指標可以是國內生產總值GDP,糧食安全,製造能力,創新,教育等。
        無論哪個陣營勝利,進程都將有助發展中的國家。

比武器競爭或經濟戰爭好得多了。

If this happens, the entire world will get developed within one generation. Will it happen?

Will China make it happen?

Will Individuals collectively make it happen?
   
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Eighteenth Slide and Notes/Comments

新概念 :  有意義的經濟活動

現代財富不再是牛,黄金。

現代財富甚至不是銀行賬戶的金錢數量。

一個國家的現代財富是有意義經濟活動(MEA)的質量和數量:
         MEA隨國家發展狀況的不同而轉變,
         在一國家有意義的活動在另一個國家可能是沒有意義的。
        有意義的活動,可能在不同時段変得沒有意義。

MEA需要不斷監察 ,完善和推廣。智囊團和政府應該帶領這些活動。

Is use of mobile phones to replace credit cards; access Internet; becoming trader etc. a Meaningful Economic Activity? Is turning minority race areas into tourist attractions and building five star hotels in such areas Meaningful Economic Activities? Is guaranteeing every citizen a minimum standard of living a Meaningful Economic Activity?
   
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Nineteenth Slide and Notes/Comments

新概念 :  建立自信

一個國家若想變得富有:
         如果它能對自己有自信。
         如果它實施的項目 ,取得成功。
         如果它可以幫助另一個國家, 在類似的項目取得成功。

一 帶 一 路 (OBOR)的倡議強調: 一起計劃、一起工作、共同享受成果。

埃塞俄比亞自己資助建成的大壩是一個很好的例子。

When an individual or a Nation has self-confidence, he will seek and create opportunities. China is showing that confidence in proposing one belt one road. China is telling the World that a win-win scenario is possible. There is no need to follow the historic path of Imperialism or Colonialism.

Self-Confidence can be built via many small successes. China is willing to go large scale as soon as it has mastered a technology. Big success can be built on top of small ones. The high speed train is a good example. I still remember riding on the slow train from Hong Kong to Beijing that took over 24 hours. We had to sleep overnight. The journey was tiring.

The Dam building is another example. There were much debate on the building of the Three Gorges Dam. After its successful completions, dozens of other dams have been completed with hardly any hesitation. Solar and Wind farms are everywhere.

Some engineers said, "Even if there were some failures, the effort is worthwhile. There is no point in arguing once the project has been approved.  We just pour in our best to accomplish the task." Self-Confidence is achieved by many, many small successes.

Hong Kong destroyed its self-confidence by allowing citizens to mount challenges after a project is approved.  Politicians and News Papers keep pouring cold water. The High Speed Train Link and the Hong Kong - Macau- Zhuhai Bridge were constantly attacked as White Elephant Projects.  Construction delays and over budget are the norm. Now there is corruption involving the USA Monitoring/Consulting Company - Jacobs.

The Hong Kong Government prided itself in subcontracting all work to "reputable" Companies. It does not need to master the technology like China. It acts like the oil rich Countries - pay and get the work done. That does not give the same confidence as mastering and improving on the technology. Will Hong Kong learn the lesson?
« Last Edit: 2017-06-17, 06:35:02 by ltseung888 »
   
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Twentieth Slide and Notes/Comments

香港參與的一種途徑

智囊交流:

香港政府與巴基斯坦建立互富系統,交換貨幣 。
        主要活動可以是智囊團交流。

巴基斯坦使用香港貨幣支持其智囊團人員 ,研究或調查香港的地鐵,貨櫃碼頭,機場,股票市場等。

香港利用巴基斯坦貨幣,研究或調查瓜德爾港內的,示範農場,商場,工廠,旅遊景點等的機遇。

Supporting Think Tanks is a good way to start. Almost all Nations will benefit.

   
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Twenty-first Slide and Notes/Comments

總結:

一帶一路是一個双贏方案。

它以新模式重新定義世界秩序和結構。
        為了使一個國家變得富有和持續富有、最好的戰略是幫助其他國家富有。
        資本(金錢)不是稀有的資源。
        知識有一特徵、付出愈多、獲得愈多,

每一個國家都可以掌握和改進科技。

世界將再沒有殖民主義和帝國主義。

Always think “Win-win”.
   
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Twenty-second Slide and Notes/Comments

請參考以上網頁。

The one belt one road initiative will help to get all Nations Developed. Will the 2 camp competition happen?
   
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