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Author Topic: Climate Change  (Read 7113 times)

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Are you talking about weather or climate? 

Meteorologists can barely/rarely get the weather forecast right, I doubt "Solar scientists" are any better at weather forecasting.

Although 3 weeks in February were a bit colder than normal, prior to that we were having a very mild winter.

This winter will likely average out to above normal for us.

PW
according to climate science Australia is meant to on fire. It’s not. Weather is when it’s raining, climate is when it’s hot :) that’s the way it’s always explained.  A 10 year wind down of the sun. Great nasa time lapse footage from their SDO https://youtu.be/l3QQQu7QLoM They said it will most likely be cooler in 2020/21 In the 70s they thought it would be a mini ice age.
   
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1. according to climate science Australia is meant to on fire.

2. A 10 year wind down of the sun.

3. Great nasa time lapse footage from their SDO https://youtu.be/l3QQQu7QLoM

4. They said it will most likely be cooler in 2020/21

5. In the 70s they thought it would be a mini ice age.


1.  Who said that?

2. An 11 year cycle, from solar maximum through to minimum and then round again.

3. this shows one of the 11 year solar cycles.

4. Less solar activity, not cooler.

5. Who said that?


If you really aspire to learn, Jim, you need to be careful who you learn from.
   
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according to climate science Australia is meant to on fire. It’s not. Weather is when it’s raining, climate is when it’s hot :) that’s the way it’s always explained.

By who?  "Weather" relates to short term observations and forecasts.  "Climate" deals with long term averages and trends.

Texas had a cold snap this month, but with their record hot summer, the year will likely average out to being warmer than the previous.  Plotting the average of several/many years demonstrates long-term trends, which can relate to a climate change.

Quote

 A 10 year wind down of the sun. Great nasa time lapse footage from their SDO https://youtu.be/l3QQQu7QLoM They said it will most likely be cooler in 2020/21 In the 70s they thought it would be a mini ice age.

As Paul-R stated, the Sun has an 11 year maximum/minimum activity cycle (and N-S pole reversal).  We have been in and are just now coming out of one of those cyclical minimums.

As it may regard climate, the past few maximums have been a bit less energetic and the past couple minimums have been a bit deeper/longer, which may be developing a "reduced activity" trend that only more time/solar cycles will reveal or confirm. 

Regarding an "ice age", the best proxies we have for past climate conditions are the Greenland and Antarctic ice core data.  Based on those findings, modern man has had the luxury of living in a global warm period.  Unfortunately, for the past several million years or so, every time the Earth reaches a warm peak, the climate soon collapses into a rather deep and long glacial period.  These glacial to warm period cycles use to happen every 41,000 years, and then damped out, or evolved into, every 82,000 years, with the past several cycles occurring every 100,000 to 125,000 (look up Milankovitch cycles).  These cycles appear to be mainly related to "orbital forcing" with regard to Earth's axial precession, changes to its elliptical orbit, and solar output.  Unfortunately, climate proxy data does not follow these rhythms exactly so there are other variables we have not yet accounted for.  Somewhat disturbingly, the transitions between a glacial period and warm period, or a warm period and glacial period, are quite fast (at least in geological terms) with the warmest periods being rather short lived.

We are currently living during a warm peak toward the end of one of those 100,000-125,000 year cycles and will likely be headed into a glacial period in the not to distant future (geologically  speaking).  The problem is knowing when, and why, that is going to happen.  Climate science attempts to model a boat load of complex and inter-related variables and feedback mechanisms in an attempt to better understand when and why the climate "does what it does".

There is little doubt that atmospheric CO2 levels are higher now than in the past million years.  This creates a variable that has no previous data sets to draw from in the recent proxy record to give us clues as to what this means long term.

We used to think the transition between warm periods and glacial periods took thousands of years, but more recently it is believed this transition can happen much faster, i.e., less than a hundred years or even over a few decades.  Most of what happens with regard to glaciation periods appears to be a mainly northern hemisphere related thing with the southern hemisphere lagging behind somewhat (again, based on proxies).  Several theories/models propose that along with orbital forcing, a slowing or interruption of the oceanic thermohaline circulation may be a possible mechanism that allows for a rapid collapse into a glacial period (and observations indicate that the thermohaline circulation has slowed by more than 20% in the last two decades).  But even this data cannot be used in isolation.

The effect of all the additional CO2 in the atmosphere is still somewhat of a wild card.  It is understood to be at least "very likely" that this additional CO2 is producing additional warming beyond what would be considered a natural trend.  What this means long term remains somewhat arbitrary.   

Hope that helps...
PW 
« Last Edit: 2021-02-22, 23:55:42 by picowatt »
   

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tExB=qr

We used to think the transition between warm periods and glacial periods took thousands of years, but more recently it is believed this transition can happen much faster, i.e., less than a hundred years or even over a few decades.  Most of what happens with regard to glaciation periods appears to be a mainly northern hemisphere related thing (again, based on proxies) and several theories/models propose that along with orbital forcing, a slowing or interruption of the oceanic thermohaline circulation may be a possible mechanism that allows for a rapid collapse into a glacial period (and observations indicate that the thermohaline circulation has slowed by more than 20% in the last two decades).


Damn fine post, especially the part quoted. 
Supposedly, it can happen in one season, and permanently change Earth's weather.  Equatorial region is a desert at the same time, as I recall.
Several  people have estimated this occurring around 2050.  That's not much time.
We might slow it down with greener practices, but for how long?

   

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By who?  "Weather" relates to short term observations and forecasts.  "Climate" deals with long term averages and trends.

Texas had a cold snap this month, but with their record hot summer, the year will likely average out to being warmer than the previous.  Plotting the average of several/many years demonstrates long-term trends, which can relate to a climate change.

As Paul-R stated, the Sun has an 11 year maximum/minimum activity cycle (and N-S pole reversal).  We have been in and are just now coming out of one of those cyclical minimums.

As it may regard climate, the past few maximums have been a bit less energetic and the past couple minimums have been a bit deeper/longer, which may be developing a "reduced activity" trend that only more time/solar cycles will reveal or confirm. 

Regarding an "ice age", the best proxies we have for past climate conditions are the Greenland and Antarctic ice core data.  Based on those findings, modern man has had the luxury of living in a global warm period.  Unfortunately, for the past several million years or so, every time the Earth reaches a warm peak, the climate soon collapses into a rather deep and long glacial period.  These glacial to warm period cycles use to happen every 41,000 years, and then damped out, or evolved into, every 82,000 years, with the past several cycles occurring every 100,000 to 125,000 (look up Milankovitch cycles).  These cycles appear to be mainly related to "orbital forcing" with regard to Earth's axial precession, changes to its elliptical orbit, and solar output.  Unfortunately, climate proxy data does not follow these rhythms exactly so there are other variables we have not yet accounted for.  Somewhat disturbingly, the transitions between a glacial period and warm period, or a warm period and glacial period, are quite fast (at least in geological terms) with the warmest periods being rather short lived.

We are currently living during a warm peak toward the end of one of those 100,000-125,000 year cycles and will likely be headed into a glacial period in the not to distant future (geologically  speaking).  The problem is knowing when, and why, that is going to happen.  Climate science attempts to model a boat load of complex and inter-related variables and feedback mechanisms in an attempt to better understand when and why the climate "does what it does".

There is little doubt that atmospheric CO2 levels are higher now than in the past million years.  This creates a variable that has no previous data sets to draw from in the recent proxy record to give us clues as to what this means long term.

We used to think the transition between warm periods and glacial periods took thousands of years, but more recently it is believed this transition can happen much faster, i.e., less than a hundred years or even over a few decades.  Most of what happens with regard to glaciation periods appears to be a mainly northern hemisphere related thing with the southern hemisphere lagging behind somewhat (again, based on proxies).  Several theories/models propose that along with orbital forcing, a slowing or interruption of the oceanic thermohaline circulation may be a possible mechanism that allows for a rapid collapse into a glacial period (and observations indicate that the thermohaline circulation has slowed by more than 20% in the last two decades).  But even this data cannot be used in isolation.

The effect of all the additional CO2 in the atmosphere is still somewhat of a wild card.  It is understood to be at least "very likely" that this additional CO2 is producing additional warming beyond what would be considered a natural trend.  What this means long term remains somewhat arbitrary.   

Hope that helps...
PW
Good post. PW. I was being flippant about Weather V Climate. What is long term? I changed my lifestyle nearly 20 years ago based on climate predictions that never happened. My concern is that policy is being made on something that is "very likely" . The swap to renewables is hardly a solution to a less polluted planet. Planet Of The Humans by Michael Moore details that quite well. The calling of CO2 a pollutant by some quarters IMHO is crazy. Found this :) Edit: I forgot about this page which I screencapped in 2009 off NASA.
« Last Edit: 2021-02-23, 01:54:06 by JimBoot »
   
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Good post. PW. I was being flippant about Weather V Climate. What is long term? I changed my lifestyle nearly 20 years ago based on climate predictions that never happened.

See, your lifestyle changes worked!!

Quote
My concern is that policy is being made on something that is "very likely" . The swap to renewables is hardly a solution to a less polluted planet. Planet Of The Humans by Michael Moore details that quite well. The calling of CO2 a pollutant by some quarters IMHO is crazy.

I have similar concerns.

Global population stabilization or reduction is rarely a card placed on the table...

PW

   

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Excellent screenshot article JimBoot.

Read "Very Carefully" and in the context of their "NewSpeak" they are admitting that they are in Control of Weather.

That "Human Life" on the Planet is somehow "responsible" is a glimpse of their Greater Goal and Agenda.

Depopulation has been talked about in Closed Circles for a long time.

Now we're seeing it and living it.


---------------------------
"The best teachers are those who show you where to look, but don't tell you what to see." - Alexandra k. Trenfor.
   
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Depopulation has been talked about in Closed Circles for a long time.

Now we're seeing it and living it.

The population will eventually stabilize when resources are scarce and we're all eating soylent green, but maybe we should consider not racing headfirst into such a future.

Stabilizing or reducing the population over time does not mean we need to suddenly "cull the herd"...

   

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The population will eventually stabilize when resources are scarce and we're all eating soylent green, but maybe we should consider not racing headfirst into such a future.

Stabilizing or reducing the population over time does not mean we need to suddenly "cull the herd"...
Certainly not to you and I :) CNN journo eats human brain on TV last year though so Soylent Green can't be that far away.
   
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Solutions

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=LuHwv_UHSbs

Finding the ability to tap into the “wheel work of nature”

Mandatory IMO



   
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Solutions

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=LuHwv_UHSbs

Finding the ability to tap into the “wheel work of nature”

Mandatory IMO

We are currently living in the midst of the Sixth Mass Extinction event (the Anthropocene Extinction).  Few wish to see it or believe it, with even fewer willing to do anything about it.  With all the division within and between countries over much more trivial matters, I fear conditions will have to become much, much worse until all of mankind realizes they must unite behind a common goal, "survival of the species".

What will the world will look like before (and if) that finally happens?

PW
   

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We are currently living in the midst of the Sixth Mass Extinction event (the Anthropocene Extinction).  Few wish to see it or believe it, with even fewer willing to do anything about it.  With all the division within and between countries over much more trivial matters, I fear conditions will have to become much, much worse until all of mankind realizes they must unite behind a common goal, "survival of the species".

What will the world will look like before (and if) that finally happens?

PW
im still worried about the 50million refugees coming in 2010. We’re doomed, run for the hills.
   
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We are currently living in the midst of the Sixth Mass Extinction event (the Anthropocene Extinction).  Few wish to see it or believe it, with even fewer willing to do anything about it.  With all the division within and between countries over much more trivial matters, I fear conditions will have to become much, much worse until all of mankind realizes they must unite behind a common goal, "survival of the species".

What will the world will look like before (and if) that finally happens?

PW


IMO
We are at a time where we can help our planet as never before ,

if we consider ourselves capable of fixing Mars?

Surely fixing or helping earth is within our grasp .... otherwise it would seem insane
To consider Mars remediation !

We have everything we need except that “ FE wheel work connection “






   

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We have everything we need except that “ FE wheel work connection “

Several people are working hard and making great progress towards this goal.
   

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Buy me some coffee
We are currently living in the midst of the Sixth Mass Extinction event (the Anthropocene Extinction).  Few wish to see it or believe it, with even fewer willing to do anything about it.  With all the division within and between countries over much more trivial matters, I fear conditions will have to become much, much worse until all of mankind realizes they must unite behind a common goal, "survival of the species".

What will the world will look like before (and if) that finally happens?

PW

PW

Although we disagree on some thing's,we agree on other's.
We are indeed heading down a slippery slope,and even though we know this,we do jack shit about it.

I do not believe the problem is in the air-so to speak.
The problem is here on the ground,with the destruction of rivers,forests,and the like's,all in the name of making a dollar. Big corporate farming over here in oz(mainly cotton) taking that much water from river's that the rivers that have been flowing for 100's of 1000's of years just drying up,killing everything that lived in then and around them.
Fracking turning near by rivers into toxic gas pits. Untold amounts of land being cleared for mining and corporate farming.And as always,our government allows it to happen,as the cotton industry keeps putting money in the governments pocket.

I don't see CO2 being the big problem here,nor global warming,although i will aknowledge it plays a small part.
The problem is the toxic cesspit we are making here on the ground.
The term !shitting in your own nest! couldn't be more accurate.

You may think i am some sort of hard case nut,but in reality when i see things like this happen,i am both sad and angry at the same time.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUG1EGs0guQ

The words spoken by the guy at the end of the video couldn't be more true.
Without accountability-there can be no justice.


Brad


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Buy me some coffee
Just as we were trying to tell the Jim--
The world has cooled over the past year  O0

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FpZhmo4Bvqw


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Just as we were trying to tell the Jim--
The world has cooled over the past year  O0

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FpZhmo4Bvqw

Although he talks about short term variations in temperature throughout various regions, at around 4:25 he seems to agree with a 1.3 C to 1.4C per century warming trend. 

PW

   

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Buy me some coffee
Although he talks about short term variations in temperature throughout various regions, at around 4:25 he seems to agree with a 1.3 C to 1.4C per century warming trend. 

PW

Yes he does  O0

The rise in temperature started just after the mini ice age 300 years ago,but accelerated during the industrial age.
So yes,it is clear that man has had some impact on the rate of temperature rise.


Brad


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I had the open fire going last night. First time ever in feb, we are still in fire season lol. Luckily a mate who was staying is a member of the local fire brigade  :)
   

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Buy me some coffee
I had the open fire going last night. First time ever in feb, we are still in fire season lol. Luckily a mate who was staying is a member of the local fire brigade  :)

Don't know how things are on your side Jim,but here now they call 2 days of 35*C a heat wave lol.
When i was young,a week at over 45*C was a heat wave.


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Buy me some coffee
Oh Paul is not going to like this Jim--he hates the truth from actual experts C.C

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fyiDwhbwxSs


Brad


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Oh Paul is not going to like this Jim--he hates the truth from actual experts C.C

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fyiDwhbwxSs


Brad

Just the intro alone by the SkyNews guy let you know form the gitgo this was going to be unbiased and factual (insert sarcasm).

Anyone who takes the time to look at the data and methods from the proxy record will conclude that (A) we are nearing the end of a natural warming period, and (B) CO2 levels are much higher now that at any time in the past 1 million plus years. 

Going back further, it is apparent that the Earth has continued to cool, on average, since the Late Heavy Bombardment, and that this cooling has occurred through loosely damped cycling between warm and cold periods.  It is also apparent from the proxy record that these cycles originally occurred at 41,000 and then 82,000 year intervals, which were moreso in agreement with orbital forcing mechanisms.  More recently, these cycles have occurred at 100,000 to 125,000 year intervals, which, in some ways, and to some degree, loosely follow the proposed "Milankovitch" cycles, which are also dependent mainly on orbital forcing.

The problem is that the fit with the Milankovitch cycles, and orbital forcing in general, is not very close anymore, with the longer cycles no longer being a close fit to orbital forcing mechanisms.  It is as if the swings between warm and cold climates, as this climatary ring-down continues, is no longer tightly coupled to these mechanisms.  Based on data from the proxy record, it is possible that the Earth has cooled sufficiently to now be reacting primarily to more localized phenomenon.

There are a lot of theories, but one of these is for the most part decoupled from orbital forcing and requires only the increase and decrease of oceanic salination, the subsequent increase and decrease of the rate of flow of the thermohaline current, and increased water vapor in the atmosphere during warm periods to trigger a swing into a period of glaciation.  This means, in simple terms, it is the warming itself that might now be the trigger for a period of glaciation, and a period of glaciation that by itself triggers an eventual warming.  This presents the possibility of forcing an earlier glaciation period by merely increasing the Earth's temperature in the present.

The point is, it is at least "possible" that the current levels of CO2, which far exceed any of the past 6 warming periods and ice ages, may be further increasing the warming that we already know should be happening based on previous warm/cold cycles.  This level of CO2 is unseen in the proxy and its effects are unknown.  If these CO2 levels are indeed increasing the rate of warming, we could be inadvertently forcing a shortening of this warm period.

Some have even proposed that we should increase CO2 levels further, in an attempt to force the Earth to stay in this warm period, as an attempt to geoengineer the climate.  But if, as discussed above, the Earth has decoupled from orbital forcing mechanisms and is now in a period of climatary ring down based on the variables discussed above, this could be a slippery slope for man to climb.

However, I can see a time 50 years or thousands of years in the future, as the clutches of the next ice age take hold, that man may indeed consider adding greenhouse gases to the atmosphere in a likely futile attempt to prevent a period of deep glaciation.

Still, there could be an orbital forcing mechanism, or phase relationships therof, that we just haven't figured out yet, but either way the stakes are fairly high.  It is likely more wise than not, to consider reduction of CO2 as a wise thing to do.   

We all stand in witness to the ongoing Anthropocene Extinction Event, also known as the Sixth Great Extinction.  This extinction level event is undeniably anthropogenic (man caused), so heck, why can't we be screwing with the climate as well?

PW
   

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It is likely more wise than not, to consider reduction of CO2 as a wise thing to do.   

PW
Wise? AT what cost? C02 reduction targets have greatly increased our energy costs which stifles research, innovation and manufacturing. What about the sun? What part does that play? Seems important.
   
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Wise? AT what cost? C02 reduction targets have greatly increased our energy costs which stifles research, innovation and manufacturing. What about the sun? What part does that play? Seems important.

The Sun falls into the categary of orbital forcing mechanisms and the Milankovitch cycles.  And, as I said, these could still be important to some degree, but the data supports there is something else going on that adds an additional and unknown mechanism that the models have yet to account for.  Heck, it could even be planet "X". (stated with a bit of grin).

When costs are brought up, I have to ask, are you arguing against the data or just saying its too costly or too inconvenient to do anything about it?

Were killing off a huge number of critters and pollinators with GMO crops, chemical pesticides and various industrial toxins at a rate never seen before, but the argument against doing anything about that is always "it would be too costly or inconvenient".

I don't think CO2 reduction has to be the costly and draconian measures that some propose, but as long as we remain divided with regard to the data or or any conclusions drawn therefrom, like everything else, we'll just go the easy route and do nothing.

'Tis man's way...

PW
   

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I use biodegradable herbicides  and organic pesticides. They are more expensive. For me the pesticides and herbicides environmental damage link is pretty obvious unlike the CO2 one.   So the cost comment relates to no new cheap coal power stations down here instead, more expensive enviro unfriendly renewables. Grumpy made a good comment regarding "free" energy in the the "release to the public" thread and the innovation it would spawn. The opposite is true for more expensive energy. When my mates run out of arguments defending global warming they usually use this one. "What harm can it do getting off coal"

 
   
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