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Author Topic: One Belt One Road  (Read 37732 times)
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Some who think one belt one road will fail.

http://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/article/1999544/why-chinas-one-belt-one-road-plan-doomed-fail

Facing a deep slowdown after years of investment-fuelled growth that culminated in a huge property and stock market bubble, the leaders of Asia’s largest economy come up with a cunning plan. By launching an initiative to fund and construct infrastructure projects across Asia, they will kill four birds with one stone.

1. They will generate enough demand abroad to keep their excess steel mills, cement plants and construction companies in business, so preserving jobs at home.

2. They will tie neighboring countries more closely into their own economic orbit, so enhancing both their hard and soft power around the region.

3. They will further their long term plan to promote their own currency as an international alternative to the US dollar. And to finance it all, they will set up a new multi-lateral infrastructure bank, which will undermine the influence of the existing Washington-based institutions, with all their tedious insistence on transparency and best practice, by making more “culturally sensitive” soft loans.

4. The result will be the regional hegemony they regard as their right as Asia’s leading economic and political power.

*** Readers are encouraged to read the original article to get the views of the author.

Here, I shall present my point of view:

1.   China can generate as much demand as it desires if it implements Mutual Credits. The key element is – whether China can use the exchanged currency X to help Nation X rich.

2.   Almost every Developing Nation is looking at the China State Capitalism Model. Can anything be learned? Can anything be improved? Can any pitfalls be avoided? Is China really willing to provide the capital, the knowledge and technology without a repeat of Imperialism or Colonialism? Is China serious in win-win?

3.   China is becoming the number one economic power whether USA likes it or not. China is already the Factory of the World. China is already the number one trading partner with many Nations. The amount of trade will increase with the one belt one road projects.

If a Nation wants its Citizens to get rich, it must increase its Currency Supply appropriately. If there were no increase, one citizen’s gain will be another citizen’s loss. The World Community as One will follow the same principle. Someone must supply the money (from thin-air if needed) so that all Human Beings can get rich. USA has a chance to take on that role. But USA failed as it focused on conditional loans, private multinationals and Return on Investment. It prints money more to benefit its Banks and Rich Citizens.

China must increase the money supply (RMB) appropriately to benefit all Human Beings. One way to do it now is via building Infrastructures in Developing Nations.

4.   China will become the number one Economic Power by virtual of its population and success stories. The one belt one road projects aim to achieve win-win. Plan together, work together and enjoy the benefits together.

Such moral high grounds will alarm USA and threaten its dominance. It will try all means to prevent the one belt one road projects from succeeding. Some moves include negative reports, rumors, giving bribes to leaders or politicians of some Nations, stirring local Nationalism and going into regional wars.
« Last Edit: 2017-06-17, 12:25:45 by ltseung888 »
   
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Innovation

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3NgxhU8TycA#t=3025.601

我爱发明

The above is an example of simple inventions done by the ordinary folks. China is promoting such to stimulate the innovation spirit. This builds self-confidence.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bSh4JXbaxLA&list=RDbSh4JXbaxLA#t=17

The above 50 videos show the scientific progress in China.

http://www.overunityresearch.com/index.php?topic=2100.0
Chapter 3 of the Book innovation.doc. That document has been downloaded over 1,000 times. The most important section is on "Blue Print for the Development of China in the 21st Century". That section was first written in 1985 for the nephew of an important Chinese Official. It was heavily circulated and revised within China and in Vietnam.  A short extract is reproduced here.

Blueprint for the Economic Development of China in the 21st Century

Introduction

The goal of this article is to provide a concrete plan for Chinese economic engineers to guide the country into the 21st century.  In this vein, we are approaching the topic from the point of view of an economic architect, and will first discuss broad concepts and visions and then outline the necessary steps for implementation.

The broad concepts are somewhat controversial.  They include:

1.   We must replace Win-Lose solutions with Win-Win solutions.  China cannot possibly follow the doctrine of "Survival of the Fittest" which worked for the West.  China must learn from the Asian Financial Crisis and drop the Win-Lose financial solutions of options, derivative and currency futures.  Otherwise years of hard work and sacrifice could be wiped out within weeks.

2.   Money is only a number in some Trusted Financial Institutions.  It can change from positive to negative valuation without any wrongdoing by the individual. We must view Modern Wealth as the Quality and Quantity of Meaningful Economic Activities.

3.   A Country such as China must increase its own money supply.  It cannot just earn it.   An individual or a small city-state such as Singapore or Hong  Kong can accumulate its wealth by the simple process of earning more and spending less.  A big country such as China cannot do that. A very modest goal of 50,000 yuan in savings per person translates to 50 trillion yuan or US $6 trillion.  Raising such money by simply exporting more than China imports would create an inconceivably huge trade imbalance.

 
The implementation steps are very powerful and they can be carried out simultaneously.  If they are carried out properly, China will become the wealthiest country in the world...

« Last Edit: 2017-06-17, 19:52:32 by ltseung888 »
   
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https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/nrfz8ZuHnZXMVNhi2khK9A

The currency war in Chinese. The latest victim is South Africa. Moody downgraded China but China was able to fight back. The RMB exchange rate increased. China now openly claimed that such rating agencies are not trustworthy.

China lost one trillion USD of its foreign currency reserve from mid 2015 to end of 2016. The People's Bank of China stupidly Forex Traded to pop up the RMB exchange rate. The unregulated Forex Market is similar to Casinos. One group bet the exchange rate will go up and another group bet that the exchange rate will go down. Usually, the winner is the one with more money. The People's Bank of China thought that with four trillion USD reserve, it was the richer group. But the daily transaction volume of Forex exceeded five trillion USD.

The total Chinese Foreign Currency Reserve theoretically cannot last one day if all bets were against it. Now, it does not even play in such casinos. It specifies its own RMB exchange rate. The Hedge Funds or Crocodiles can do what they want in the unregulated Forex Exchanges. They can no longer drain the Reserve. All talks of RMB falling (breaking 1USD to 7RMB) and Chinese Economy going down are just ignored. The one belt one road projects help to keep the economy growing both within China and in the Developing Nations. China is learning to speak out against such rating agencies. China can take actual measures to control the RMB flowing in and out of China.

Wall street has lost its invincibility after the 2008 financial crisis. China, Russia and other Nations are forming their own rules. The Currency War Weapon is no longer effective against China. The rumor that the Chinese Economy will go downhill is false. China is in control of the GDP growth rate by doing more infrastructure projects with the one belt one road Nations.  Speculators cannot win in their Casinos if China does not play!

Chinese Companies, Individuals and Trading Partners will hold on to RMB as China can easily manipulate RMB to slowly appreciate. Holding RMB and earning higher interest with prospect of RMB appreciation will make RMB one of the default Settlement and Reserve Currencies. There is no need to gamble away the hard earned reserve in the West Setup Forex Casinos. Currency is for the trading of goods and services. Currency is not for speculation or gambling...
   
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http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/01/09/chinas-new-silk-road-is-getting-muddy/

... China’s business practices are already facing local pushback in several countries where its state-owned enterprises have built energy and infrastructure projects. Some firms have been accused of cutting corners, ignoring safety standards, using secondhand or low-quality materials and equipment, and building environmentally destructive projects, such as hydroelectric dams or coal-fired power plants. Complaints have come from Laos, Vietnam, and Cambodia regarding environmental damage and droughts from Chinese hydropower projects along the Mekong River; from Indonesia regarding an ill-fated, over-budget coal power plant and a failed high-speed rail project; and from Myanmar regarding Chinese firms clear-cutting forests.

Last month, dock workers at Hambantota port in Sri Lanka held the massive Japanese vehicle carrier Hyperion Highway and its crew hostage for several days after they were cut out of a 99-year lease agreement with the state-owned China Merchants Port Holdings Co. Meanwhile, in Venezuela’s Bolívar state rioters looted hundreds of Chinese-owned businesses including shops, supermarkets, and warehouses. In Pakistan, workers on Chinese mining and construction projects have been attacked by Baloch rebels embroiled in separatist struggles with the government. Extensive squabbling among Pakistan’s political parties, the military, and local community leaders continues to delay the implementation of numerous CPEC projects.

https://scroll.in/article/837601/is-india-trying-to-convince-the-world-chinas-one-belt-one-road-plan-is-secretly-colonial


*** The occurrence of some set backs is to be expected in a large project covering vast areas, diverse views and lasting many decades. The project is a win-win. Just push on and overcome all obstacles. China lost one trillion USD Foreign Currency Reserve in the Forex Trading Battle.  The announced one belt one road projects cost less than that. Money can be printed from thin-air. It does not matter if the Developing Nations cannot pay back the loan. (The better strategy is to use Mutual Credits that will not get any Nation into debt.) The new philosophy is that - if a Nation wants to be rich and remain rich, the best strategy is to help other Nations rich.
   
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The graph showing how RMB was attacked by the Hedge Funds or Crocodiles and how to fight back.

1. The Forex Market is unregulated. There are many brokers or exchanges quoting different exchange rates. It is like many Casinos each giving different odds.
2. The brokers profit by the spread (difference between buy and sell prices) when customers buy and sell.
3. The Transaction is always in pairs. Customers can long (buy and then sell) or short (sell and then buy). The holding period is determined by the customer.
4. The Hedge Funds or Crocodiles attack the RMB by claiming that RMB will depreciate. They short. The People's Bank of China tried to defend by taking the opposite position - long. If China does not defend, the RMB exchange rate (USD/CNH) will depreciate in the many Forex Exchanges or Casinos.
5. If China defends or gambles in the US or UK Forex Casinos, it will have to use its Foreign Currency Reserve to settle if it loses.
6. China lost as the ganged up Hedge Funds had more money then China.
7. In the graph, the RMB exchange rate against the USD was 6.24 in Aug 2015. It was 6.90 at the end of 2016. The difference was 0.6600 or 6600 PIPs.
8. For an individual investor, if he invested USD 2K, the broker will loan him 200 times. He effectively traded with 400K. The gain for each PIP is around USD100. The resulting gain on 6600 PIP would be 660,000USD.
9. The Forex Exchange System is a zero sum game. If one gains, another one must lose. In this case, the loser is China. In the period from Aug 2015 to Dec 2016, China lost one trillion USD and the RMB exchange rate dropped from 6.24 to 6.90.
10. The rating agencies (Moody, Standard and Poor etc.) claimed that the exchange rate will drop to 7.0 and scared many RMB holders to exchange their RMB causing China to drain more of its Reserve.

The solution for China can be:

1. Forex Trade in its own Forex Exchange (Casino). Winning or losing makes no difference. The USD/CNH exchange rate will be quoted in the International Forex System. China only needs to dominate the exchange volume with massive transactions. The Crocodiles can play in their own Casinos and China does not need to drain its Reserve at all.

2. China specifies its own RMB exchange rate without playing in the Casinos! This is the tactics China uses at present.

3. China has Currency Swap agreements with many trading partners. The exchange rate is pre-determined. China can help such partners by helping them trade for no fee in the Chinese Forex Exchange Casinos! Thus the Currency War Weapon is no longer effective against China or its trading partners...
« Last Edit: 2017-06-19, 00:26:35 by ltseung888 »
   
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Went to the Seminar on "Pakistan - Belt and Road Development and Opportunities". The Main Speaker was Mr. Abdul Qadir Memon, Consul General of Pakistan in Hong Kong.

He showed a slide of Criticism of One Belt One Road. The four points were:

1. Suspicion of Imperialism and Colonialism.

2. Large Influx of Chinese Workers.

3. Debt Burden.

4. Infant Industry Competition.

The key arguments to overcome such criticisms are:

1. Suspicion of Imperialism and Colonialism are suspicions only. Examples and time will tell. So far, Pakistan sees completion of power plants, roads, railways and development of Gwadar Seaport. These are bringing real benefits to Pakistan.

2. Most Construction Workers are Pakistanis. The knowledge in infrastructure building is being passed on. Any settling of Chinese are limited to the Special Economic Zones. These SEZs are deliberate policies to attract and encourage foreign investment and talent.

3. The Debts carry low interests. It is expected that the increased wealth generated from more electricity, better irrigation, improved transport, more knowledge via the Internet and extra trade will be able to repay the debts. (There is always Mutual Credits as another solution).

4. There will always be competition in any Industry. In the SEZs, Foreign Companies are encouraged to set up factories and develop new Industries. Pakistan can learn faster with such factories actually operating in front of them. Learn, master and improve the technology, technology and technology. (Relationship Selling may offer a good solution.)

I have given copies of our seminar presentation material to both Pakistan Officials and the Maritime Silk Road Society. I shall set up meetings to provide more information and contact. Sow seeds. Win-Win.
   
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The Mindset Changes that helped the Rise of China - Part 1

1.   In the 1980s, Lawrence Tseung had a chance to meet the nephew of Zung Yung Kai(朱鎔基). The Nephew said that China was poor and had to borrow money from the World Bank to build roads in China. Mr. Tseung said that China should print money to do the project. The cost in building the Road may be 1 billion dollars. Once the road is completed, China will have an asset of 1 billion dollars. The construction process will created many jobs and learning opportunities. China should focus on learning and mastering the road construction process.

2.   When China sent its first group of Computer Scientists to USA for training at Digital Equipment Corporation (DEC) in 1980, there were accompanying political advisors. The advisors saw a Taiwan Flag on the lobby in which DEC placed a local country flag on all places where DEC did businesses. The advisors requested that the Taiwan flag be removed otherwise the Chinese Engineers will forgo their training and China will not do business with DEC again. The request was rejected. The incident got hot and the Chinese Ambassador came. He went together with other Senior Chinese Officials to the lobby. He stared at the map and said: “I do not see any Taiwan Flag. Do you?” Suddenly the entire group of Chinese did not see any Taiwan Flag! (It was similar to the King’s New Clothes that only the wise could see.) Now, political dogma plays a much lesser part in academic exchanges.

3.   China conveniently did not see the things that upset their development plans. For example, Shenzhen had many massage parlors to cater for the sexual needs of millions of migrant workers.  The law enforcement agencies often did not see that.  The same applied to polluting industries.

4.   The phrase “Look Forward” in Chinese has the same sound as “Look at Money”. That became the motto since the 1980s. Forget Communism. Getting Rich is Glorious especially if it is done legally.”

5.   The one child policy really helped at the appropriate time. I have seven brothers and sisters. My father was a medical doctor and he “conveniently did not know contraception”. During the Second World War, having more babies potentially meant having more soldiers. That mental attitude totally changed. China must provide the best for its citizens. Fewer citizens means more resources to share...

More to follow.
« Last Edit: 2017-06-21, 06:14:38 by ltseung888 »
   
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The Mindset Changes that helped the Rise of China - Part 2

1.   Special Economic Zones(SEZ). Shenzhen is the shining example of success. In the 1980s, it was a small fishing town. Now it has over 10 million citizens and is known as the Silicon Valley of China. The Mindset Change is the Super Silicon Valley Mentality – everything existing (that we want to build) is third class. We have to improve it to second or first class. When we pass it to you, you should treat it as third class and improve it to second or first class. Use the SEZs to experiment.

2.   Cross the river by feeling the stones. Do not blindly copy the Soviet or the USA Model. China must find its own development path. The Tiananmen Square incident in 1998 was a mind awakener. The Students had patriotism and zeal but had no idea of how to govern. Letting them protest more would lead to riots similar to USSR. But that protest hammered in the need to improve economic conditions for all. China must increase its GDP at a fast pace to provide jobs and opportunities for its citizens.

3.   The Asian Financial Crisis in 1997. China watched in horror when the Asian Tigers and Nations collapsed under the Hedge Fund attacks from USA. The Asian Nations dropped their Financial Shark Prevention Nets and opened their financial markets. The USA Hedge Funds were able to manipulate the stock and currency markets of these Nations. Their hard earned Foreign Currency Reserve were drained in days and their economies collapsed. China realized such rules set up by the West were unfair and full of traps.

4.   Joining WTO in 2001. Before the joining of WTO, there were much discussion in China on whether China could compete against the West with vastly more capital and technology. Once the protection barriers were gone, China would be the victim. Reality proved otherwise. China learned much more from joining WTO. Foreign Companies did make huge profits using the cheap labor force of China. But China learned the technology, technology and technology. The Mindset was – Foreign Companies were encouraged to make money so long as they could teach China something. Win-win.

5.   The completion of the Three Gorges Dam in 2006. That gave China much confidence in its engineers. There were much skepticism from the West whether China could do such a big project. The new Mindset was – China could do many great things once China put its mind to it. Technology is no longer an obstacle.

More to follow.
   
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The Mindset Changes that helped the Rise of China - Part 3

1.   The 2008 Beijing Olympics. The 2008 Olympics was the Celebration Party that China had graduated from poverty to relative prosperity. The athletes made every Chinese proud with their Gold Medal performances. Many Chinese looked up high and gave up the Inferiority Complex. The Economic Planners saw the successful completion of many Five Year Plans and confidently drafted the future Five Year Plans.

2.   The 2008 World Financial Crisis. The collapse of Lehman Brothers and the general loss of confidence of Wall Street raised many questions in China. Wall Street was supposed to be invincible. The rules they set are the Gospels. No Economists dare to challenge them. That attitude changed. Wall Street was no longer regarded in awe. China was asked to take on the role of reviving the World Economy. China printed the equivalent of over Four Trillion USD dollars on Infrastructure projects. China imported large quantities of oil, mineral resources and went on an investment spree unheard of in Human History. The Chinese Citizens saw hundreds of new roads, bridges, buildings, high speed trains. They supported the economic policies of the Government.

3.   The 2013 Silk Road Proposal. The infrastructure development was so fast in China that almost all the important, obvious projects were completed or on their way to completion. Many Western Economists predicted the inevitable economic slowdown. China must join the Developed Nations in low GDP growth. China had other thoughts. China realized that for the World Economy to grow, some Organization must pump out thin-air money to get the World rich. USA and the IMF were not doing a good job. China could take on the role of supplying thin-air capital and the knowledge to build infrastructures.

4.   Loss of one trillion USD Foreign Currency Reserve from mid-2015 to end of 2016. China stupidly listened to some Western Economists and thought that the RMB could become one of the default Settlement and Reserve Currencies. It participated in the Forex Trading with USD/CNH pair in the Foreign Forex Exchanges (Casinos). The Western Economists somehow convinced the Peoples Bank of China that Four Trillion USD Dollar Reserve was too much. Using some to pop up the exchange rate of RMB was the right thing to do. China lost one Trillion and seek advice from all its Think Tanks and advisors. The answer turned out to be simple. Do not Forex Trade in the Foreign Forex Exchange Casinos. Just specify a non-transparent element in the defining of the RMB Exchange Rate.

5.   The May 2017 One Belt One Road Summit. China had the unexpected bonus of the new US President Trump who withdrew from TPP and the Paris Climate Agreements. President Trump wanted to pursue “America First” policy. The vacuum was filled in by China that defined the new Globalization as win-win, plan together, work together and enjoy the results together. The New Growth Engine of the World is clear – help the Developing Nations to become rich!

« Last Edit: 2017-06-21, 18:10:48 by ltseung888 »
   
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The Mindset Changes that helped the Rise of China - Part 3
snip

5.   The May 2017 One Belt One Road Summit. China had the unexpected bonus of the new US President Trump who withdrew from TPP and the Paris Climate Agreements. President Trump wanted to pursue “America First” policy. The vacuum was filled in by China that defined the new Globalization as win-win, plan together, work together and enjoy the results together. The New Growth Engine of the World is clear – help the Developing Countries to become rich!

An excellent series Itseung, living next door to this monster we have long noted the Americon mantra of, "there is only one winner, everyone else is a loser"

So this could be a revelation in world affairs (if it is not already too late)

Ron
« Last Edit: 2017-06-21, 18:13:59 by ltseung888 »
   

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Quote from: Ronee
An excellent series Itseung, living next door to this monster we have long noted the Americon mantra of, "there is only one winner, everyone else is a loser"

So this could be a revelation in world affairs (if it is not already too late)

What is happening in Asia with the growth of the SCO is very
encouraging.  At last a real competitor for the corrupted and
fraudulent Rothschild Banking Dynasty and all of its offspring.

Who woulda ever thunk that the World might be saved by China
and Russia?  The U.S. is finally being exposed as Liar No. 1 and
Chief Supporter of Terrorism.


---------------------------
Treat everyone with kindness and respect. Not because they are nice, but because you are. - Unknown
   
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An excellent series Itseung, living next door to this monster we have long noted the Americon mantra of, "there is only one winner, everyone else is a loser"

So this could be a revelation in world affairs (if it is not already too late)Some

Ron

We have to be positive. Look at Slide Seventeen (Reply 19) of this thread. One way to have a safer and more prosperous world is the competition between two camps. USA and Allies in one camp. Russia+China and Allies in the other. The Competition is to help Developing Nations rich. USA can focus on the Nations in Central and South America. Russia+China can focus on the rest.

A Nation may join NO camp, EITHER camp or BOTH. It should look for win-win; plan together; work together and enjoy the results together.

Only recently (within the last ten years), China really mastered the technology of High Speed Railways; Internet; bringing electricity and clean water to every remote village; getting its minority races rich and willing to propose its own win-win rules.
 
The USA Camp mastered the above long ago. Why is it not bringing prosperity to every human being?

In Hong Kong, I learned that in the 1970s, the Hong Kong and Shanghai Bank (HSBC) gave loans generously. For example, a Developer wanted to develop a piece of land. HSBC was willing to give it “developer loans”.  When the Development Plans were ready, the Government allowed the developer to sell the “to be built” homes to the General Public. HSBC was willing to provide loans and then mortgages. The money did not come from bank deposits. The money was from thin-air. Such a process allowed Hong Kong to develop to a prosperous and modern city. HSBC became one of the largest banks in the World with such thin-air money. China learned and some of its State Owned Banks became the richest in the World.

The World Bank and IMF could have done the same.  They could have used the thin-air money to help many Developing Nations and themselves rich.  They failed (reasons are debatable).

Now, China, Russia and other Nations are taking up the role of supplying thin-air money to get Developing Nations rich. China+Russia can provide the technology, technology and technology. (USA will try to avoid wars with Russia+China.) It is a matter for the Developing Nations to learn, master and improve so that they can be rich after some initial help.
« Last Edit: 2017-06-22, 20:40:41 by ltseung888 »
   
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snip

The USA Camp mastered the above long ago. Why is it not bringing prosperity to every human being?

snip

The World Bank and IMF could have done the same.  They could have used the thin-air money to help many Developing Nations and themselves rich.  They failed (reasons are debatable).


Because the West has been taken over by the Rothschild/Black Nobility who are entirely negatively motivated

Ron
   
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Because the West has been taken over by the Rothschild/Black Nobility who are entirely negatively motivated

Ron

Don't worry. Internet is here. Different and superior opinions have a chance.
   
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Don't worry. Internet is here. Different and superior opinions have a chance.

The dumb down has been very effective already. A recent UK study showed that 20% of the populace don't even know how to change a light bulb or boil an egg. 67% have no idea how to change a flat tire.

Plus the constant erosion of the internet, most people have no idea of what is the truth, where to look for it, or what it looks like even if it where to hit them.

The ideal learning situation is the family and a decent schooling experience. With the decent of education and the destruction of the family this early grounding has been removed. Instead the focus is on gay and transgender culture,

Ron
   
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An Official of a Developing Nation asked: "Can you recall the development of China from the early 1980s when China was poor after the Cultural Revolution? What can we learn from that history?"

   
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An Official of a Developing Nation asked: "Can you recall the development of China from the early 1980s when China was poor after the Cultural Revolution? What can we learn from that history?"

The Answer (Part 1)

1.   The most important event in the 1980s was the rise of Deng Xiaoping. “It does not matter whether a cat is white or black. So long as it catches mice, it is a good cat.” This mindset change freed the Chinese Nation from the political dogma of the Mao era. Communism was no longer the guiding doctrine. "Cross the river by feeling the stones".

2.   The practical steps were the opening up to the West via the establishment of the Special Economic Zones (SEZs) and the sending of engineers and scholars to outside China for training. This group witnesses the wealth of the Western Society first hand. They realized much of the backwardness of China was due to the State Propaganda. The focus was on learning technology, technology, technology. Hong Kong factory owners were encouraged to make money using the cheap Chinese Labor. Shenzhen started to boom."

3.   One of the important concepts learned was that Money (Capital) is not a scarce resource. China must increase its money supply appropriately for its Citizens to become rich. Pumping out thin-air money via Infrastructure Building was a good Meaningful Economic Activity. The printing of over four trillion dollars in 2008 to help to solve the World Financial Crisis confirmed that concept.

4.   The mindset of the Citizens became “Look Forward to Money” that has the same sound as “Looking Forward”. Many success stories encouraged the masses to use their brains. The creativity of the Nation was stimulated. Copying the success stories with Government support was the norm. Many sons and daughters of Senior Officials entered the Business arena. State Enterprises including Banks showed up in the Stock Markets. Entrepreneurs like Jack Ma were the new heroes.

5.   The one child policy freed many mothers to enter the work force. The scarce resource was shared amongst fewer citizens making everyone richer. Subsistence farming gave way to modern farming as many farmers seek higher paying jobs in Cities. Urbanization was achieved via the money motive. Many babies were left to the care of the grand parents. Workers relied on high technology such as computers, mobile phones and Internet to communicate with their parents and off-springs. The technology level of the masses rose at a fast pace.
« Last Edit: 2017-06-24, 23:21:48 by ltseung888 »
   
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Elaborating on the answers:

1.   The most important event in the 1980s was the rise of Deng Xiaoping. “It does not matter whether a cat is white or black. So long as it catches mice, it is a good cat.” This mindset change freed the Chinese Nation from the political dogma of the Mao era. Communism was no longer the guiding doctrine. "Cross the river by feeling the stones".

Leadership is important.  Deng was frank. He did not have the plans nor the action items. He was willing to let the many Think Tanks propose policies. He told the Nation that experimentation was needed. Cross the river by feeling the stones. Be prepared to get wet and swim. The saving grace were the Special Economic Zones. Open up - but not the entire Nation. It worked.

Hong Kong factory owners were encouraged to make more money by moving their factories there. The first group of Computer Engineers trained at Digital Equipment Corporation went back.  They helped to train many University Students. Technology, technology and technology. Let the capable made money first. Others watched and learned. Once China learned to use the Computer, planning became science. Progress could be monitored and double checked. Even the simple McDonald food ordering system was regarded as high technology. It was improved to include webcams to determine the business operation of any branch from a central monitoring site. China no longer relied on the manual reporting of its Officials.

*** A Developing Nation should treat the China Model as Third Class. Use the Super Silicon Valley Mentality to turn it to Second or First Class. It took China some thrity years to develop from poverty to moderate prosperity. Should it take much less with modern day knowledge and technology???

What can be done now? Super Democracy? Systematic Brainstorming? Think outside the box? Special Economic Zones? Think Tank Exchanges? Mutual Credits?
« Last Edit: 2017-06-25, 13:11:07 by ltseung888 »
   
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Elaborating on the answers:

2.   The practical steps were the opening up to the West via the establishment of the Special Economic Zones (SEZs) and the sending of engineers and scholars to outside China for training. This group witnesses the wealth of the Western Society first hand. They realized much of the backwardness of China was due to the State Propaganda. The focus was on learning technology, technology, technology. Hong Kong factory owners were encouraged to make money using the cheap Chinese Labor. Shenzhen started to boom."

One of the improvements was that factories provided food and lodging for its workers. The wages were low but all the earnings were disposable income. Workers were able to save and sent the salaries back home. Many Western Companies moved their manufacturing to Shenzhen to take advantage of the low costs. China was able to learn and improve on the technology. China became the Factory of the World.

I had the actual experience of working for Fairchild Semiconductors in Hong Kong. My job was to document the improvement process after Fairchild moved their diode processing to Hong Kong. I found that the efficiency increased many thousand percent. The most labor intensive process was picking up chips via tiny vacuum pumps and placing them on metal plates for testing. The USA process required 20 workers for a few working days to prepare a batch of chips. The improvement was - no vacuum tubes. The diode chips were flipped with paper cards and laid nicely on the testing plates. The batch of chips could be done by one skilled female worker in about 3 hours. There were dozens of similar improvements.

Now, almost all the Apple I-phones are made in China. The Apple Management admitted that it was not possible to move the manufacturing back to USA. It was not only the low wages but the dexterity, skill and efficiency.  There are other Nations with lower wages...

*** A Developing Nation should examine whether it wants to be the lowest cost producer for some goods. Should it explore Relationship Selling? Should it attract tourists with its unique landscape, climate or culture? Should it turn some of the SEZs into International Zones? Should it encourage remote monitoring and control using Internet? Should it encourage International Franchises to show off (and learn)?
« Last Edit: 2017-06-25, 13:18:24 by ltseung888 »
   
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Elaborating on the answers:

3.   One of the important concepts learned was that Money (Capital) is not a scarce resource. China must increase its money supply appropriately for its Citizens to become rich. Pumping out thin-air money via Infrastructure Building was a good Meaningful Economic Activity. The printing of over four trillion dollars in 2008 to help to solve the World Financial Crisis confirmed that concept.

China exported more to USA than it imported. The difference went into the Foreign Currency Reserve. China used the Reserve to buy USA treasury bonds. Economists started to question the usefulness of a large reserve.  Some even claimed that it was modern slavery.

Can China use that Reserve to generate Meaningful Economic Activities for itself and for other Nations? Will the building of Infrastructures for other Nations help them to become rich?

*** A Developing Nation should seek financial stability. Should it have Mutual Credit agreements? Should it peg its currency rigidly to the US dollar or the RMB? Should it establish good financial controls to protect against the Hedge Funds or Crocodiles? Should it seek foreign investment? Should it develop its local industries with State Capital? What are the Infrastructures that will help? Can the Nation do such Infrastructures without outside help? What are the Meaningful Economic Activities for the Nation now?
« Last Edit: 2017-06-25, 13:27:11 by ltseung888 »
   
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Elaborating on the answers:

4.   The mindset of the Citizens became “Look Forward to Money” that has the same sound as “Looking Forward”. Many success stories encouraged the masses to use their brains. The creativity of the Nation was stimulated. Copying the success stories with Government support was the norm. Many sons and daughters of Senior Officials entered the Business arena. State Enterprises including Banks showed up in the Stock Markets. Entrepreneurs like Jack Ma were the new heroes.

Trying to understand the concepts of Economic War, Currency Manipulation, Modern Wealth etc. is too much for the average citizen.

The simple statement - Make more Money - is far easier to grasp.

Officials are judged on whether they can make the citizens in their district richer! Can their living standards be increased? Will better roads, more high speed trains or bridges, better hospitals, higher speed Internet etc. help?  That mindset change of Officials made miracles...

*** A Developing Nation should think about letting some people get rich first as examples for others to copy and learn. How should this be done?  What is the role of Government Officials? Should they be judged on how well they can bring wealth to the citizens they are responsible for? Should the Officials think about how to link up with the One Belt One Road Initiative and take advantage of the opportunities offered by China? Win-win?
« Last Edit: 2017-06-25, 13:33:09 by ltseung888 »
   
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Elaborating on the answers:

5.   The one child policy freed many mothers to enter the work force. The scarce resource was shared amongst fewer citizens making everyone richer. Subsistence farming gave way to modern farming as many farmers seek higher paying jobs in Cities. Urbanization was achieved via the money motive. Many babies were left to the care of the grand parents. Workers relied on high technology such as computers, mobile phones and Internet to communicate with their parents and off-springs. The technology level of the masses rose at a fast pace.

One of the reasons proposed by the Colonial Powers was - we need to grab resources for our future generation. With a stable and even decreasing population, such an argument no longer holds.  There is no excuse to take over the land or resources of others. The alternative is to get every human being rich. This is achievable with abundant capital, technology, knowledge and production capability. Instead of cutting down on the production capacity with the inevitable loss of jobs and opportunity, the better strategy is the new Globalization. Win-win, plan together, work together and enjoy the results together.

There is no need for any Nation to go heavily into debt to pay for the Infrastructures. Mutual Credits can be used. China now have the capability of creating wealth for any Nation with their currency in their own soil. (USA could have done that but it chose to dominate.)

*** A Developing Nation should throw away the inferiority Complex passed down from the Colonial Era.  The West will keep suggesting or accusing China as harboring Imperialism and Colonialism intentions. Judge the facts. Ride on the High Speed Trains in Africa. Examine the projects - divide them into long term and short term; divide them into profit making and non-profit making. Think win-win.
« Last Edit: 2017-06-25, 13:40:31 by ltseung888 »
   
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An Official of a Developing Nation asked: "Can you recall the development of China from the early 1980s when China was poor after the Cultural Revolution? What can we learn from that history?"

The Answer (Part 2)

1. A Developing Nation should ask: "What is win-win for me? And what is win-win for the other side?"

2. China took 30 years or so to go from poor to moderate prosperity. Can we do it better and faster?

3. Will the confidence of my Nation grow if we go for super democracy first?

4. How can we develop our Think Tanks? Can they identify the Meaningful Economic Activities?

5. The Chinese are saying: "If you want to be rich, build a road first." How true is it for my Nation?

   
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An Official of a Developing Nation asked: "Can you recall the development of China from the early 1980s when China was poor after the Cultural Revolution? What can we learn from that history?"

Elaborating on the Answers (Part 2),

1. A Developing Nation should ask: "What is win-win for me? And what is win-win for the other side?"

A Developing Nation may want to learn the technology of building the various Infrastructures. Just having the roads, power stations, bridges, dams or seaports built is not enough. The contract with China should state a learning or training element. May be only a few selected projects are targeted for training. A training project is expected to take much longer to complete. The win-win for the Developing Nation would include both the building of the Infrastructures and the mastering of the technology, technoloovgy and technology.

The win-win on the other side is likely to include:
1. Use of its over capacity.
2. Building of good will.
3. Financial gain from the projects in the Special Economic Zones.
4. Additional GDP growth.
5. More opportunity and self-confidence for its citizens.
« Last Edit: 2017-06-25, 22:02:51 by ltseung888 »
   
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An Official of a Developing Nation asked: "Can you recall the development of China from the early 1980s when China was poor after the Cultural Revolution? What can we learn from that history?"

Elaborating on the Answers (Part 2),

2. China took 30 years or so to go from poor to moderate prosperity. Can we do it better and faster?

The answer is an obvious YES. The Western parts of China lagged behind for many years. But once the policies of go west and one belt one road were decided, the development of the Western regions was in high gear. The catching up took a few years (some cities had growth rates of over 15%).

The key is convince the citizens that the projects are win-win. Make sure the change in government (if any) would not delay, suspend or cancel the projects. Plan together carefully and promote appropriately. Gain the support from all quarters. Identify the obstacles early. Work together with the Super Silicon Valley Mentality. Beat the China Speed and work as if there were no tomorrow. Enjoy the fruits together. Self-confidence will spring up.
   
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